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Prediction

Given a least squares line, we can use it for prediction. The equation for prediction is simply the equation for a line with tex2html_wrap_inline2973 and tex2html_wrap_inline2971 replaced by their estimates. The predicted value of y is traditionally denoted tex2html_wrap_inline3013 (``y-hat''). Thus, suppose we are given the least squares equation

displaymath3017

where x is the age of a child in months and y is the height of that child, and let's further assume that the range of x is from 1 to 24 months. To predict the height of an 18 month old child, we just plug in to get

eqnarray543

What if we wanted to know the height of a child at age 32 months? From our least squares equation, we could get a prediction. However, we're predicting outside of the range of our x values. This is called extrapolation and is not ``legal'' in good statistics unless you are very sure that the line is valid. When we predict within the range of our x values, this is known as interpolation; this is the way we want to predict.



Jan Lethen
Wed Nov 13 16:20:46 CST 1996